Há duas abordagens básicas de previsão ambiental:
Abordagem projetiva: consiste em projetar os dados atuais para o futuro utilizando modelos deterministas e quantitativos. Em geral, essa abordagem explica o futuro usando a projeção do passado e considera um futuro único e certo de maneira determinista. Assim, costuma restringir-se a fatores e variáveis quantitativos, objetivos e já conhecidos. É a abordagem utilizada para situações em que as mudanças são previsíveis e gradativas.
Abordagem prospectiva: consiste em prospectar o futuro usando uma visão global e holística, utilizando modelos de julgamento, probabilidades subjetivas, pareceres de profissionais e opinião de executivos como o método de análise estrutural- Delphi, impactos cruzados etc. Em geral, essa abordagem trata do futuro múltiplo e incerto por meio de variações qualitativas, quantificáveis ou não, subjetivas ou não, conhecidas ou não. A abordagem prospectiva mostra o futuro atuando como determinado pela ação presente.
QUESTÃO ERRADA: A abordagem prospectiva de cenários leva em consideração, entre outras coisas, a explicação do futuro pelo passado, a utilização de modelos deterministas e quantitativos e o fato de restringir-se a variáveis quantitativas.
Negativo. Isso é abordagem projetiva.
QUESTÃO CERTA: No desenvolvimento de cenários em processos de planejamento estratégico, os especialistas consideram: a ocorrência de futuro múltiplo e incerto, base para uma análise ancorada na abordagem prospectiva.
Lembrar: na abordagem projetiva, me ancoro em dados passados para prever o futuro (faço uma projeção única). Na abordagem prospectiva, porém, busco ver cenários (mais de um) – prospecto, levanto hipóteses do futuro.
QUESTÃO CERTA: A abordagem projetiva caracteriza-se, basicamente, por restringir-se a fatores e variáveis quantitativos, objetivos e conhecidos; explica o futuro pelo passado; considera o futuro único e certo.
Abordagem reativa: toma atitudes à medida que as coisas vão acontecendo.
Abordagem projetiva: conhece o passado, o presente e só está preparado para um futuro.
Abordagem prospectiva: conhece o passado, o presente e está preparado para vários futuros.
QUESTÃO CERTA:
A questão citou as ferramentas utilizadas para a realização da abordagem prospectiva, quais sejam: utilização de modelos de julgamento, pareceres de profissionais e opinião de executivos.
QUESTÃO CERTA:A elaboração dos cenários estratégicos deve considerar todos os aspectos da empresa. Sua finalidade é conceber o futuro como resultado da interação entre tendências e eventos. Sobre as formas básicas de desenvolvimento de cenários, é correto afirmar: a abordagem prospectiva de desenvolvimento de cenários caracteriza-se basicamente por restringir-se a fatores e variáveis quantitativos, objetivos e conhecidos, bem como por explicar o futuro pelo passado.
QUESTÃO CERTA: Em um contexto de planejamento organizacional, desponta como correta a seguinte premissa: para a construção de cenários em um contexto de incertezas e mudanças rápidas, a abordagem prospectiva é preferível à abordagem projetiva.
“A abordagem prospectiva é, resumidamente, um estudo que investiga o que acontece de agora para a frente em relação ao que se pretende analisar. A questão afirma que em um ambiente de cenários incertos e com mudanças rápidas, essa abordagem é melhor (embora não seja a única) do que a projetiva, que se baseia, como o nome diz, em estimar, conjecturar, imaginar, simular possíveis cenários”.
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